The Russian military invasion of Ukraine, which commenced on the night of 24 February 2022, constitutes a turning point in the history of Europe, with lasting consequences for the future of the European Union (EU). The war of aggression waged by Russia against a sovereign state brings back the memory to the dramatic first half of the 20th century. Since the end of World War II, the international security architecture had been built on a set of rules and institutions designed to preserve stability and prevent aggressive wars. And since the end of the Cold War, Europe had experienced an enduring period of peace, driven by the transition to democracy and a market economy. In fact, the very project of European integration had been inspired from day 1 from the aim to make war in the European continent not only unthinkable, but also impossible -- as famously proclaimed in the Schuman Declaration. And the progressive enlargement of the EU had enticed policy makers to believe that the EU integration model would exclude war from the European continent for good.
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The rolling of tanks in Ukraine and the shelling of its capital Kyiv have shattered this expectation. However -- as I argue in my comment -- the war also constitutes, like other crises beforehand, an opportunity for the EU: both to relaunch its cooperation with the United Kingdom (UK), and to renew its future. On the one hand, Brexit left a deep legacy of distrust between the parties -- and the continuing quarrels of the Northern Ireland Protocol have done nothing to defuse it. But the UK and the EU do still share a similar worldview, inspired by mutual belief in democracy, freedom and the rule of law. In front of external military threats, these two partners should therefore re-approach each other, and, indeed, cooperation on security and defense could be the stage for a new start in the relationship. As such, the EU and the UK should quickly move to fill the gap left by the under-inclusive Trade & Cooperation Agreement and strike a new security treaty, with formalized institutional structures, a mutual defense pledge and alignment on sanctions.
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On the other hand, the war in Ukraine is also a wake up call for the EU itself. The dividends of European integration are there for all too see -- an area of peace, freedom, prosperity and democracy like no other on Earth. But as the Russian aggression makes crystal clear this state of affairs is not God-given; it must be protected; and it is time for the EU to take care of it. While the support of the US with NATO will remain crucial, the EU must be able to secure its defense. This is what sovereignty is all about, as French President Emmanuel Macron has long argued. But a sovereign Europe requires a profound revision of its inadequate decision-making and fund-raising structures, with an ambitious leap forward towards a federal governance, with a real executive power, and autonomous military means.
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While the above-mentioned prospects will prompt debates, multiple analyses point to the need for the EU to rise to the challenge -- and I am pleased to bring to your attention a series of important works that the Brexit Institute has recently produced and published on this topic. In particular, have a look at
- the blog by my DCU colleague Ken McDonagh (Head of the School of Law & Government, and a specialist on CFSP) on the need for the EU to upgrade its defense structures, beyond the strategic compass
- the blog by Michael Cox (Professor Emeritus of International Relations at London School of Economics) looking at the perils of Ukraine // Russia confrontation
- the blog by my DCU colleague Donnacha Ó Beacháin (Professor of Politics) examining the imperial role of Russia in the Kazhak crisis
- the working paper by Ben Tonra (Professor of International Relations at UCD), examining the limited framework of EU-UK cooperation in foreign affairs and defense post Brexit.
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I hope the above will provide for some food for thought as we navigate this brave new world. Needless to say, let me also take the opportunity to express our solidarity to Ukraine and condolescences to those personally affected by these dramatic developments.
As ever, I thank you for your attention and support.
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Yours
Federico
Prof. Federico Fabbrini
Director of the Brexit Institute
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Watch the Keynote given by Paschal Donohoe, Eurogroup President and Irish Finance Minister, given at the first day of the REBUILD Launch Conference.
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Meet some of the staff of the REBUILD Centre.
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The DCU Brexit Institute is proudly sponsored by
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The Brexit Institute runs the following EU-funded projects:
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REBUILD is DCU's first Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, focussing on the €750bn Next Generation EU (NGEU) Recovery Fund. It is a three-year (2022-2025) project funded by the European Union’s Erasmus+ programme.
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BRIDGE is a multi-disciplinary academic network investigating current European Union crises and their impact on European integration. It is a three-year (2019-2022) Jean Monnet Network funded by the European Union’s Erasmus+ programme and led by the Brexit Institute.
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